The following is the a deep dive breakdown of playoff scenarios for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the NFC. You'll only find this detailed of a breakdown here at the JC De La Torre's Tampa Bay Sports Blog, we'll update it each week as the Bucs progress through the final quarter of their schedule.
This Week’s Clinching Scenarios
NY Giants can clinch the NFC East with win AND Dallas loss.
Arizona can clinch the NFC West with win OR San Francisco loss.
Bucs Scenarios
The Bucs cannot clinch the division title or a playoff spot this week
Futurecast – BUCCANEERS
If the Bucs win out –
They will win the NFC South and at worst the #2 seed in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay can take the #1 seed in the playoffs if the Giants lose two games. The losses would need to be to Dallas and Carolina OR Carolina and Minnesota OR Dallas and Minnesota. The Bucs and Giants would go to the third tie-breaking procedure (best record among common opponents, minimum 4). The Bucs-Giants common opponents are Dallas, Carolina, Minnesota, Seattle. If the Bucs win out, Tampa Bay would have beaten Carolina twice, Minnesota, and Seattle. They lost to Dallas giving them a 4-1 record with common opponents. The Giants would have beaten Dallas (once), Seattle, and either Carolina or Minnesota, giving them a 3-2 record in common opponents.
If the Bucs go 3-1 (with loss to Carolina) –
The Bucs would be in the playoffs as a wildcard. If Dallas does not win out, they would be the 5th seed.
To win the Division, the Bucs would need Carolina to lose one more game to an NFC opponent, preferably to the New Orleans Saints, this would allow the Bucs to claim the division title based on divisional record (4-2 vs. 3-3). If the Panthers beat the Saints, but lose to the Giants, the Bucs and Panthers would fall to the fourth tie breaker, conference record, where the Bucs will win 9-3 vs. 8-4
If the Bucs go 3-1 (with loss to Atlanta) –
If the three teams (Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay) all remain tied and finish at 12-4, the Bucs would win the NFC South based on best head-to-head record between the three (3-1 vs 2-2 for Atlanta, 1-3 for Carolina).
If the Falcons lose, leaving just the Bucs and Panthers, the Bucs would win the division based on head-to-head with Carolina in this scenario.
If the Panthers lost, leaving just the Bucs and Falcons, it may come down to the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory. Tampa Bay current has 91 pts between them and their opponents in their 9 victories (10.1 average margin of victory), the Falcons have 103 pts between them and their opponents in the 8 victories (12.9 margin of victory). The Falcons would win the strength of victory tie-breaker as it currently stands. So the Bucs would need blow out wins in their 3 remaining victories in this scenario and hope the Falcons have some squeakers to get their strength of victory down.
If the Bucs lose the division to the Falcons under this scenario, they would make the playoffs as a wild card. If Dallas won out, they would take the 5 seed, while Tampa Bay would be the 6 and the Panthers would be out. If Dallas lost somewhere along the way, Tampa Bay would be the 5 and the Panthers (if they won the rest of their games) would be the 6.
If the Bucs go 3-1 (winning both road games, losing one of the last two to AFC West opponents).
The Bucs would win the NFC South, even if Carolina won out, due to better divisional record.
If the Bucs go 2-2 (losses to Carolina and Atlanta)
Doomsday scenario for the Bucs which could definitely happen. The Bucs would be all but out of the divisional race. They would need BOTH Carolina and Atlanta to lose twice with one of the losses to New Orleans to win the division.
To make the playoffs, the Bucs would need one of Carolina, Dallas, and Atlanta to lose two of their final four games and Washington to lose at least 1 more game.
If the Bucs go 2-2 (winning both on the road, but losing the last two to AFC West opponents).
The Bucs would need Carolina to lose one of their remaining games to initiate a tie between the two teams (or three if Atlanta wins the rest of their games), the Bucs would win the division based on division record.
If Carolina wins out and the Bucs had to settle for a wildcard, the Bucs would need one loss by Washington to make the playoffs, winning the tie breaker over Atlanta and would either be the 5th or 6th seed depending on if Dallas lost two of their last four.
If the Bucs go 2-2 (Win in Carolina, lose in Atlanta, lose to one of the AFC West opponents) –
The Bucs would need both Carolina AND Atlanta to lose one more game to have a shot at the division. If the three teams (Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay) all remain tied and finish at 11-5, the Bucs would win the NFC South based on best head-to-head record between the three (3-1 vs 2-2 for Atlanta, 1-3 for Carolina).
If one of the two don’t lose and the Bucs have to settle for a wildcard, Tampa Bay would need Atlanta or Carolina to lose ONCE or Dallas to lose twice to make the playoffs.
If the Bucs go 2-2 (Lose in Carolina, Win in Atlanta, Lose to one of the AFC West opponents) –
Carolina would have to lose twice, Atlanta at least once for the Bucs to have a chance at the division. If the three teams (Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay) all remain tied and finish at 11-5, the Bucs would win the NFC South based on best head-to-head record between the three (3-1 vs 2-2 for Atlanta, 1-3 for Carolina).
If Carolina does not lose twice and the Bucs have to settle for the Wildcard, the Bucs would need the Redskins to lose at least once and would likely the 6th seed (unless Dallas lost twice, allowing them to be the fifth seed).
If the Bucs do worse than 2-2 in their final four games
Most playoff scenarios appear unrealistic if the Bucs finish the season 1-3 or 0-4 at this point. Lets just say they’d need a miracle.
Earliest the Bucs could clinch a Playoff spot:
Week 15 – with wins over Carolina and Atlanta, combined with two losses by Dallas and 1 loss by Washington OR wins over Carolina and Atlanta, another loss by Carolina or Atlanta and a loss by Washington.
Earliest the Bucs could clinch the NFC South
Week 16 – With wins over Carolina, Atlanta, and San Diego OR wins over Carolina, Atlanta and another loss by Carolina.
Week 14 – Who to Root For
Obviously, the Bucs to beat Carolina.
New Orleans to Beat Atlanta
Pittsburgh to beat Dallas
Baltimore to beat Washington
Philadelphia to beat the NY Giants
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